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CAT 4 Storm Bears Down On Gulf Coast of US

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Dennis, a CAT 4 storm, is bearing down on the panhandle of Florida. This is the first CAT 4 storm to hit the US in the month of July. Expect extensive news coverage. From a quality standpoint, the predictive capability has increased greatly in the last few years. One of the interesting things forecasters use is the "Spaghetti" model, which takes a bunch of different computer programs and runs them to predict the storm's path.

The spaghetti model for Dennis is showing a lot of alignment, which means forecasters can be fairly sure of exactly where it will strike. Where the models seem to fall apart is when rarely-seen conditions occur: it's been common wisdom in the forecasting community for years that CAT 5 storms seem to do whatever they want to.
Stay tuned for more details.

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This page contains a single entry by DanielBMarkham published on July 10, 2005 1:36 PM.

More Project Post-Mortems Needed was the previous entry in this blog.

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