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Happy Birthday ET
This month and next mark an unique anniversary of sorts for humankind -- the sixty-year anniversary of the popular realization that we might not be alone out there.

The popularity of fanciful images and movies such as this in the 1980s was a
result of growing awareness in the possibility of other-worldly life
It all started in June of 1947 when salesman and pilot Kenneth Arnold reported seeing nine objects flying in a "V" formation over Mount Rainier, Washington. Arnold told a reporter on June 24, 1947 that the UFOs flew erratically, fluttering and tipping their wings, like "a saucer if you skip it across water" -- and a worldwide subculture was born. Just the next month, July 1947, saw a crash in Roswell, New Mexico.
I won't go into the history of the UFO phenomenon -- Wired has a great story on it. The overwhelmingly vast majority of UFO sightings are either misled people or outright hoaxers. Naysayers -- one could call them smart alecks or wiseacres -- say that the entire phenomenon is simply a product of mass hysteria.
There's some truth to that. But like all generalizations it is false. Every now and then -- perhaps as much as 2-4 times per year -- there are stories that quite adeptly challenge the notion that we are alone in the cosmos. I would like to share a few of my favorites.
- May 11, 1950, McMinnville, Oregon. While feeding her rabbits just before sunset, Mrs. Trent noticed a strange object in the sky. She then quickly called her husband who got the family's camera and Mr. Trent then took two shots from positions only just a few feet apart. The pictures first appeared in a local newspaper and afterwards in Life magazine.
Seventeen years later the photos were subjected to a detailed analysis for the University of Colorado UFO Project.William K. Hartmann, an astronomer from the University of Arizona, performed a meticulous photometric and photogrammetric investigation of the original negatives, and set up a scaling system to determine the approximate distance of the UFO. Hartmann used objects in the near foreground, such as a house, tree, metal water tank, and telephone pole, whose images could be compared with that of the UFO. There were also hills, trees, and buildings in the far distance whose contrast and details had been obscured by atmospheric haze.
Hartmann used these known distances of various objects in the photo to calculate an approximate atmospheric attenuation factor. He then measured the relative brightnesses of various objects in the photos, and demonstrated that their distances could generally be calculated with an accuracy of about +/- 30%. In the most extreme case, he would be in error by a factor of four. He then wrote:
"It is concluded that by careful consideration of the parameters involved in the case of recognizable objects in the photographs, distances can be measured within a factor-four error ... If such good measure could be made for the UFO, we could distinguish between a distant extraordinary object and a hypothetical small, close model."
Hartmann then noted that his photometric measurements indicated that the UFO was intrinsically brighter than the metallic tank and the white painted surface of the house, consistent with the Trent's description that it was a shiny object. Further, the shadowed surface of the UFO was much brighter than the shadowed region of the water tank, which was best explained by a distant object being illuminated by scattered light from the environment.
"it appears significant that the simplest most direct interpretation of the photographs confirms precisely what the witnesses said they saw"
Hartmann further wrote that "to the extent that the photometric analysis is reliable, (and the measurements appear to be consistent), the photographs indicate an object with a bright shiny surface at considerable distance and on the order of tens of meters in diameter. While it would be exaggerating to say that we have positively ruled out a fabrication, it appears significant that the simplest most direct interpretation of the photographs confirms precisely what the witnesses said they saw."
In his conclusion, Hartmann reiterated this, stressing that all the factors he had investigated, both photographic and testimonial, were consistent with the claim that "an extraordinary flying object, silvery, metallic, disc-shaped, tens of metres in diameter, and evidently artificial, flew within sight of [the] two witnesses."
To this day, the Trent sighting remains a classic UFO sighting. Skeptics counter that there was no physical evidence, as skeptics are wont to do. But the year was 1950, and it was an observation of an aerial phenomenon from some distance away. Still, UFOs were deemed the subject matter of "crackpots"
- December 16, 1963,Agoura, California.Aviation legend Kelly Johnson, while spending some time at his ranch around 5PM in the evening, was looking through a window at the brilliant sunset when he noticed a dark elliptical shape in the sky in the direction of Pt Mugu cape. His first thought was that it was a lenticular cloud, or possibly a smoke trail from an aircraft, but it remained stationary and unchanged for several minutes. He called for Althea to bring him his 8-power binoculars and ran outside.
By that time the object had begun to move, accelerating away from him in a shallow climb in a direction opposite to the motion of the other clouds in the sky. It seemed to be very large and distant, and moving fast, but he had no real way of knowing its actual size, distance or speed. Johnson's report was not from someone who could easily be attacked as a crackpot or ill-educated person out seeking publicity.
- July 17, 1957, Topeka, Kansas. In the early morning hours of July 17, 1957, an RB-47 was flying out of Forbes Air Force Base, Topeka, Kansas, on a composite mission that included gunnery exercises over the Texas-Gulf area, navigation exercises over the open Gulf, and finally ECM exercises scheduled for the return trip across the south-central United States. The RB-47 was carrying a sixman crew, of whom three were electronic warfare officers manning ECM gear in the aft portion of the aircraft.
The Air Force RB-47 was equipped with electronic countermeasures (ECM) gear and manned by six officers. It was followed by an unidentified object for a distance of well over 700 mi. and for a time period of 1.5 hr., as it flew from Mississippi, through Louisiana and Texas and into Oklahoma. The object was, at various times, seen visually by the cockpit crew as an intensely luminous light, followed by ground-radar and detected on ECM monitoring gear aboard the RB-47. Of special interest in this case are several instances of simultaneous appearances and disappearances on all three of those physically distinct "channels," and rapidity of maneuvers beyond the prior experience of the aircrew.
Here we have multiple eyewitnesses, radar contact, and a lengthy period of observation. You might think "Hey -- there's obviously something going on here! This should get somebody's attention!" but you'd be wrong. It's been fifty years since this sighting and the official positions of most governments are still the same as they were back then.
Official positions.
- 1973. Low Earth Orbit.On the 59th day of flight Skylab III's three-man crew saw and photographed a strange red object. Not more than 30-50 nautical miles from them, Alan Bean, Owen Garriott and Jack Lousman reported the object was brighter than any of the planets.
This incident has never been explained.
The issue of astronaut sightings is a very interesting one -- various reports have many sightings and no sightings. One thing is certain, however, regardless of UFOs at all: professional aviators, scientists, and astronauts are extremely reluctant to make public statements about things happening outside of their comfort zone. The good news is that there is a slow trend for these professionals to be more open.
- 1996. Yukon Territory, Canada. Over 22 witnesses report seeing an object larger than a football stadium.
- Two weeks ago. Channel Islands.Airline pilots report seeing a UFO a "mile wide" for many minutes. This incident had multiple witnesses, both professional and amateur, and concurrent radar contact.

Classic UFO photograph from the Trent sighting in 1950

Was the father of the SR-71 punked by a weather balloon? Venus? Swamp gas?

Know what this is? Neither does anybody else
I could go on. There's the Phoenix Lights, the many, many sightings in Mexico, and the other groups of sightings involving the military and pilots. At some point, even though we cannot reach any conclusions, we can conclude that the weight of the evidence indicates that there are real, solid, aerial devices or machines that seem to interact with humans from time to time. Less certain but still probable (in my opinion) is that at times these interactions seem to be of an intelligent nature. The problem we have as a species, is that we insist on knowing something is either true or not, and UFO sightings seem to fall into the "Un-reproducible" category. Because of this, some say they are complete nonsense while others say we just lack the ability to do a proper analysis of the behavior and inputs we are receiving.
As the evidence mounts that something is going on, I find myself in the camp saying we're just not able to analyze this phenomenon yet. I believe there is something there, in the same exact way I believe that there is intelligent life on other planets in the universe and that SETI might help us find it. But it is important to acknowledge that these are quasi-religious beliefs. They are not irrational beliefs, but they are not strictly rational either. It sure is going to be wild when we finally start figuring all of this stuff out!
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