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Shuttle Debate Continues
A good friend of mine emailed me today -- "Are you as nervous as I am about this launch? What if NASA mixes up its missions and crashes the shuttle into a comet?" he asked.
Humor aside, it seems that everybody is obsessed with the next shuttle launch. Perhaps it's because we haven't had one in a while, perhaps the memories of the previous two disasters still loom large in the mind. Whatever the reason, the news of the day seems to be, as MSNBC put it, "Spirited Debate Over Shuttle Readiness" Let's step back and take a deep breath, shall we?
First off, Alan Boyle is a good columist -- I read his stuff all the time. I've even emailed him a couple of times and surprise, surprise he responded kindly. So this in no means is meant towards Alan or his column. His was just the umpteenth one I've seen today.
Putting this in perspective, the shuttle is 1960s technology, with 1970s materials, and who knows how many changed/modified systems. In addition, it's been flown nowhere near enough to actually test out the flight systems. Don't believe me? Take a look at how many times any other flying machine gets flown before it ever becomes operational.
Don't get me wrong -- the folks at NASA are the best in the world, and I certainly don't wish, nor think any harm will come on the flight. I'm simply pointing out that we have a huge, overblown, cumbersome program that is way over budget and way behind schedule. In addition, managers are being pressured to make flights risk-free. I've got news for you: you can have all the 'spirited debate' you want, but that's not going to change reality. There are two paths to every complex system. Either you make lots and use them a lot and 'grow' the best solution over time, or you make few, use them less and less, and finally stop using them at all. The shuttle system is a member of the latter system, not the former.
I'm probably the biggest proponent of space flight that I know, so this surely isn't about "space is science" -- that's BS. Space is not science, space is a place. Places mean something to other people when people talk about being there. Space travel will either be a human experience or we will close up in this little coccoon on earth and self-vegetate.
But systems are systems. The cost of a shuttle launch is way past it's value to society. In order to fulfill the goal of manned flight, I would like to propose ONE cash prize for NASA to give out -- create a fully reusable orbital platform capable of lifting Saturn-V payloads to LEO for a 100th the cost of the shuttle. I would suggest a ten-year time frame and a prize amount of $10 Billion. You could even give half that much for a runners-up prize.
Solve the cost-to-orbit problem, NASA. Everything else is a waste of your time (and our money). We deserve better.
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